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Monitoring for Fraud

You've set up your fraud protections. Now you need to know what to watch and when to worry. Fraud monitoring doesn't need to be a full-time job. A weekly check takes 10 minutes and catches problems before they become crises.

TL;DR
  • Check your chargeback ratio weekly. The one number that matters most
  • Watch for pattern changes, like sudden spikes in orders, declines, or chargebacks
  • Know your escalation triggers: the numbers that mean "act now"
  • Don't over-monitor. Weekly is enough for most small businesses
123
Payments
Chargebacks
Fraud
Operations
Costs
Pathway 3: Fraud · Lesson 3 of 3
6 min read
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The One Number That Matters: Your Chargeback Ratio

Your chargeback ratio is the percentage of transactions that become disputes. Card networks use this number to decide whether to fine you or shut you down.

How to calculate it:

Chargeback ratio = Chargebacks this month ÷ Transactions this month × 100

Example: 5 chargebacks out of 1,000 transactions = 0.5%

The thresholds to know:

RatioStatusWhat Happens
Below 0.5%HealthyNothing. Keep doing what you're doing.
0.5% - 0.9%Watch carefullyYou're getting close to processor-enforced thresholds. Review your recent chargebacks.
0.9% - 1.5%Danger zoneYour processor will likely flag you. Acquirers often act well below network thresholds. See Network programs. Take action now.
Above 1.5%CrisisVisa VAMP merchant excessive threshold (currently 2.2%, tightening to 1.5% April 2026). Mastercard ECM triggers at 1.5% + 100 chargebacks. Fees and account freezes likely. See the 0.9% Panic Guide.
Where to Find Your Ratio
  • Stripe: Dashboard > Radar > Overview (dispute rate shown at top)
  • Square: Dashboard > Balance > Disputes (calculate manually: disputes / transactions)
  • Shopify Payments: Settings > Payments > View payouts > Disputes tab
  • PayPal: Resolution Center > Open cases

If your processor doesn't show the ratio directly, divide your dispute count by your transaction count for the month. Confirm they're using count-based calculation - that's what Visa and Mastercard use.

Your Weekly 10-Minute Check

Every Monday (or whatever day works), spend 10 minutes on these:

1. Check your chargeback ratio (2 minutes)

  • Log into your processor dashboard
  • Look at chargebacks received this month vs. transaction count
  • If the ratio is above 0.5%, dig into the individual disputes

2. Scan for unusual patterns (3 minutes)

  • Any spike in decline rates? (Could mean card testing)
  • Any orders from new locations or new customer segments?
  • Any repeat disputes from the same customer?

3. Review new chargebacks (5 minutes)

  • Read the reason code for each new chargeback
  • Is it fraud, "not received," or "not recognized"?
  • If "not recognized," check if your billing descriptor is the problem

Patterns That Mean "Act Now"

These signals mean something has changed and you need to investigate immediately:

SignalWhat It Might MeanFirst Action
Decline rate jumps 5%+ in a dayCard testing attackCheck velocity rules, look for burst patterns from single IPs
3+ chargebacks from same reason code in a weekSystemic problemFix the root cause (descriptor, shipping, product description)
New orders to unfamiliar region spikeFraud ring testing your siteReview orders manually, tighten geographic rules if needed
Customer complaints about unrecognized chargesBilling descriptor issueFix your descriptor immediately
Processor sends you an email about chargebacksYou're on their radarReply immediately with your remediation plan
Processor Emails Are Urgent

If your processor sends you an email about chargebacks, elevated risk, or account review, reply within 24 hours even if you don't have a complete answer. Silence makes processors nervous. A response like "We've seen this and are investigating. Here's what we've done so far" buys you time and goodwill.

What to Do When You Catch Something

If it's a card testing attack (burst of small transactions, high decline rate):

  1. Check your velocity rules. Are they active?
  2. Block the offending IP addresses or devices
  3. Add CAPTCHA to your checkout if you don't have one
  4. The attack usually stops within hours

If it's a friendly fraud spike (real customers disputing real orders):

  1. Check your billing descriptor. Is it recognizable?
  2. Review your confirmation emails. Do they clearly explain the charge?
  3. Make your refund process easier to find
  4. Consider adding pre-dispute alerts (Verifi/Ethoca) if volume justifies the cost

If it's a stolen card pattern (orders to unusual addresses, high-value items):

  1. Enable manual review for orders matching the pattern
  2. Consider adding 3D Secure for the risky segment
  3. Contact your processor if the pattern is aggressive

When to Get Professional Help

Most small businesses can handle fraud monitoring themselves. But consider getting help if:

  • Your chargeback ratio is above 0.65% and you can't bring it down
  • You're seeing organized fraud (same device, multiple cards, coordinated timing)
  • Your processor has sent you a formal warning letter
  • You need to implement 3D Secure or advanced rules and aren't sure how

Where to get help:

  • Your processor's risk team (free, and they want to help you stay below thresholds)
  • A payments consultant (for strategy, not tool sales)
  • Chargeback alert services like Verifi or Ethoca (if your volume justifies the per-alert cost)
Pathway 3 Complete: Protecting from Fraud
3 of 5 pathways complete. 6 lessons remaining in The Guide

You've Completed the Fraud Protection Pathway

You now understand:

Next Steps